Becerra and Hilton Both Ran Against Trump, and Neither of Them Blinked
If you watched Tuesday's debate between Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton and walked away thinking you'd learned a lot about California, well. You might want to lower your expectations for the next one. Because for long stretches of what was billed as a contest between two would-be governors of the most populous state in the union, the main character was a guy who lives in Florida and already has a job.
Related: BECERRA AND HILTON CLASH IN L.A. AS CALIFORNIA'S GOVERNOR RACE SHARPENS · How California's Security Deposit Rules Work - and What Tenants Can Do If a Landlord Doesn't Follow Them
Becerra, the former state attorney general and ex-U.S. Health and Human Services secretary, and Hilton, the British-born Fox News commentator turned Republican candidate, squared off in their first and only scheduled debate. The exchange drew immediate post-game analysis from outlets calling it a "blowout." The consensus, at least among observers who covered it closely, was that one candidate landed cleaner shots. But the more revealing story wasn't who won on points. It was what the debate showed about where California's 2026 governor's race actually stands.
Both men have decided that the path to Sacramento runs directly through Mar-a-Lago. Whether that's the right map is another question entirely.
Trump as the Third Candidate
Hilton, who spent years hosting a prime-time Fox show and built his California profile on aggressive anti-establishment positioning, went after Becerra repeatedly for obsessing over Donald Trump. Which is a fair punch, except Hilton also talked about Trump. A lot. His pitch is essentially that he's the guy who can bring California jobs back and cut through bureaucratic gridlock, and he routinely frames that as getting in line with what Washington is doing under the current administration. So: also Trump.
Becerra's approach was more direct. He leaned into his record as a litigator against the federal government, casting himself as the state's best fighter against Washington overreach. His campaign is built on the assumption that California Democrats want someone who has already been in the ring. He threw "Trump, Trump, Trump" back at Hilton with enough force that it became the pull quote of the night, according to multiple accounts of the exchange.
The debate also hit Hollywood, jobs, and the film industry's ongoing flight from California. Both men said they'd bring production back. Neither explained exactly how, given that tax incentives in Georgia, New Mexico, and the U.K. have been eating California's lunch for years and aren't going anywhere.
What Was Actually at Stake
California's governor's race matters for reasons that go well beyond state borders. Whoever wins in 2026 inherits a $320 billion economy, a housing crisis that has turned into something close to a permanent emergency, ongoing wildfire recovery costs that are staggering, and a relationship with the federal government that has been adversarial to a degree not seen in decades. The job is not small.
Becerra is betting that California Democrats, who make up the dominant voting bloc in the state, will reward experience and a willingness to fight. His HHS tenure and his years as AG give him a resume that reads well on paper. His weakness, critics say, is that he is deeply associated with an establishment Democratic brand that has not exactly covered itself in glory on the state's most visible failures. Homelessness. Fentanyl. The cost of living. He owns some of that record whether he wants to or not.
Hilton's calculation is that California is fed up enough to take a real swing. He is betting on a crossover coalition: Republicans, obviously, but also independents and disaffected Democrats who have watched their cities deteriorate and their rents go up and decided that the party in charge deserves to lose. It's not a crazy theory. It just hasn't worked in California statewide in a very long time.
See also: How to Sign Up for Earthquake and Wildfire Alerts in California Before You Need Them · Mendocino County DA Recuses Himself From Case Against Former Teacher and MendoFever Publisher
The Hollywood Question Nobody Answered
One moment in the debate that deserved more attention: both candidates talked about bringing film and TV production back to California. This is genuinely consequential. The entertainment industry is a pillar of the Southern California economy, and production jobs, from grips to location scouts to studio caterers, have been bleeding out of the state for years. Gavin Newsom has pushed to expand the state's film tax credit program, and the Legislature has gone along. But the gap between what California offers and what other states and countries offer remains wide.
Neither Becerra nor Hilton got specific enough to be useful on this point. They both said the right things. They both stopped well short of saying how, exactly, they'd reverse a structural economic trend that has been building for two decades. Voters who actually work in the industry probably noticed.
One Debate, One Shot
The "only scheduled debate" framing is worth sitting with. In a state this size, with a primary electorate this sprawling, one debate is not a lot of airtime to make a case. California voters in Fresno, Bakersfield, and Redding experience the state very differently from voters in West Hollywood or the Mission District. A single debate held in, presumably, a studio setting, with political reporters doing the questioning, doesn't come close to capturing that range.
Speaker Mike Johnson was in the Central Valley this week, which tells you something about where Republicans think they can move numbers. The Central Valley is a region with water fights, agricultural labor issues, and unemployment rates that tend to run higher than coastal averages. Johnson's presence there was a reminder that the governor's race will not be won or lost on cable news clips alone.
For now, both Becerra and Hilton head into the rest of the cycle having answered one big question clearly: they know how to talk about Trump. California is still waiting to find out if either of them knows how to talk about California.